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Fed Interest Rate Decision May 01, 2024 02:00PM ET
Our Fed rate monitor calculator is based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, which tend to signal the markets’ expectations regarding the possibility of changes to US interest rates based on Fed monetary policy. The tool allows users to calculate the likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate hike or cut.
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
5.00 - 5.25 | 5.4% | — | 5.9% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 94.6% | 99.6% | 94.1% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.4% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
4.75 - 5.00 | 0.7% | — | 1.4% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 17.5% | 24.3% | 26.9% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 81.7% | 75.4% | 71.7% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.3% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
4.50 - 4.75 | 0.2% | — | 0.6% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 5.9% | 8.0% | 11.4% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 37.4% | 41.2% | 44.5% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 56.4% | 50.6% | 43.5% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.2% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
4.25 - 4.50 | 0.1% | — | 0.3% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 19.8% | 22.6% | 26.6% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 45.8% | 45.3% | 44.0% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 31.6% | 28.4% | 23.5% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.1% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
4.00 - 4.25 | 0.0% | — | 0.1% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.0% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 25.7% | 28.8% | 31.2% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 42.5% | 40.7% | 38.7% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 24.4% | 20.7% | 17.4% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.1% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
3.75 - 4.00 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
4.00 - 4.25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 14.7% | 17.1% | 20.9% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 32.8% | 33.7% | 34.8% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 34.8% | 32.4% | 28.3% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 14.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.1% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
3.50 - 3.75 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
3.75 - 4.00 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
4.00 - 4.25 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.1% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 19.9% | 22.6% | 25.5% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 33.4% | 33.3% | 32.7% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 28.9% | 25.7% | 21.9% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
3.50 - 3.75 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
3.75 - 4.00 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
4.00 - 4.25 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 10.8% | 13.8% | 16.2% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 24.2% | 26.7% | 28.1% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 32.0% | 30.4% | 28.8% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 22.9% | 19.0% | 16.2% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
3.50 - 3.75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
3.75 - 4.00 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
4.00 - 4.25 | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.7% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 15.9% | 18.7% | 20.8% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 27.2% | 28.1% | 28.4% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 28.5% | 26.1% | 24.0% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 16.7% | 13.7% | 11.4% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
2.75 - 3.00 | — | — | 0.0% |
3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
3.25 - 3.50 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
3.50 - 3.75 | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
3.75 - 4.00 | 2.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
4.00 - 4.25 | 7.3% | 14.2% | 11.7% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 17.5% | 24.2% | 22.1% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 27.4% | 26.9% | 27.6% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 26.8% | 18.8% | 21.7% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 15.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.0% | — |
Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
---|---|---|---|
2.50 - 2.75 | — | — | 0.0% |
2.75 - 3.00 | 0.0% | — | 0.0% |
3.00 - 3.25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
3.25 - 3.50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
3.50 - 3.75 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% |
3.75 - 4.00 | 5.1% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
4.00 - 4.25 | 13.2% | 12.8% | 17.7% |
4.25 - 4.50 | 23.2% | 22.6% | 25.3% |
4.50 - 4.75 | 27.1% | 26.5% | 24.2% |
4.75 - 5.00 | 20.0% | 20.2% | 14.8% |
5.00 - 5.25 | 8.4% | 9.4% | 5.2% |
5.25 - 5.50 | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
5.50 - 5.75 | — | 0.2% | — |
5.75 - 6.00 | — | 0.0% | — |
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