A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Mattel, Inc. MAT. Shares have lost about 12.1% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Mattel Posts Wider-than-Expected Q1 Loss, Sales Lag

Mattel reported weak results for the first quarter of 2017.

Earnings & Revenue Discussion

Mattel’s adjusted loss per share of $0.32 was much wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.17. Also, the loss was wider than the prior-year quarter loss of $0.14, due to lower sales.

Furthermore, revenues of $735.6 million plunged 15% year over year as reported and in constant currency. The decline was due to the prolonged impact from the retail inventory overhang coming out of the holiday season and the resulting slower pace of reorders by retailers. In addition, continued softness in some of its girls properties along with lower licensing income hampered the results. Sales also failed to surpass the consensus mark of $810.2 million by 9.2%.

Quarter Highlights

Worldwide gross sales too plunged 15% year over year as reported an in constant currency.

Gross sales in North America (including the U.S., Canada and American Girl) were down a significant 24% as reported and in constant currency. Meanwhile, in the International region gross sales declined 2%. However, the same were flat year over year on a constant currency basis.

Notably, gross margin in the reported quarter decreased 680 bps to 37.9% from 44.7% recorded in the year-ago quarter. This was due to higher obsolescence expense, unfavorable impact of fixed cost absorption given lower sales, currency headwinds and lower licensing income.

Moreover, adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $122.1 million, much wider than the prior-year quarter loss of $38.6 million, due to lower revenues.

Worldwide Revenues by Brand

Mattel, through its subsidiaries, sells a broad variety of toy products, which are grouped into four major brand categories: Mattel Girls & Boys Brands, Fisher-Price Brands, American Girl Brands, and Construction and Arts & Crafts Brands.

As reported and in constant currency, worldwide gross sales at Mattel Girls & Boys Brands declined 16% to $444.1 million year over year. This reduction was on the back of a 34% plunge in the Other Girls brand, 21% decline in the Entertainment business and a 13% fall in Barbie sales (12% in constant currency). A 4% surge in the Wheels category was the only saving grace.

Gross sales at Fisher-Price Brands, which includes Fisher-Price Core, Fisher-Price Friends and Power Wheels, slipped 9% year over year to $246.9 million (8% in constant currency).

Gross sales at American Girl Brands were $82.2 million, down 12% from the year-ago quarter as reported and on a constant currency basis.

Gross sales at Construction and Arts & Crafts Brands, which includes the Mega Bloks and RoseArt brands, were $38.5 million, down a mammoth 38% from first-quarter 2016 as reported and in constant currency.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been five revisions lower for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate has moved down 218.2% due to these changes.

Mattel, Inc. Price and Consensus

Mattel, Inc. Price and Consensus | Mattel, Inc. Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, Mattel's stock has a poor Growth Score of 'F'. However, its Momentum is doing a bit better with a 'D'. The stock was allocated a grade of 'C' on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'D'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is more suitable for value investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise that the stock has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We are looking for a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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