Why Is ProLogis (PLD) Up 1.9% Since the Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for ProLogis, Inc. PLD. Shares have added about 1.9% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Prologis Beats on Q1 FFO Estimates, Raises Outlook

Backed by growth in revenues and occupancy gains, Prologis, Inc. reported first-quarter 2017 core FFO per share of $0.63, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62. It also improved from the year-ago quarter figure of $0.61.

Further, this industrial REIT raised its core FFO per share outlook for full-year 2017 amid solid operating fundamentals, increased deployment from investments in its ventures and higher net promote income.

The company posted revenues of $629.2 million, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $589.1 million. It compared favorably with the year-ago number of $606.3 million.

Amid a consistent shift toward e-commerce and supply chain strategy transformations, Prologis’ occupancy remained high. In fact, demand for the company’s facilities was driven by growth in the housing, construction and e-commerce businesses. Moreover, market conditions in Europe continue to improve. However, the company noted that there was an increase in speculative construction activity in a number of markets in the reported quarter.

Quarter in Detail

At the end of the first quarter, occupancy level in the company’s owned and managed portfolio was 96.6%, expanding 50 basis points year over year.

During the quarter under review, Prologis signed 39 million square feet of leases in its owned and managed portfolio compared with 46 million square feet in the year-ago period. Per the company, the decrease in volume is due to high occupancy.

Prologis' share of net effective rent change was 19.6% in the reported quarter compared with 20.1% recorded a year ago. The figure was led by the U.S., which recorded an impressive 29.2% growth. Cash rent change was 8.2% against 8.6% in the year-ago quarter.

Net effective same-store net operating income (NOI) registered 5.8% growth compared with 7.4% increase reported in the prior-year period. This was driven by 7.1% growth reported in the U.S. Cash same store NOI climbed 7.1% compared with 6.0% reported in the year-ago period.

In first-quarter 2017, Prologis' share of building acquisitions amounted to $48 million, development stabilization aggregated $405 million; while development starts totaled $312 million. Further, the company’s total dispositions and contributions were $485 million.

Liquidity

Prologis ended the quarter with $3.8 billion of liquidity. In addition, during the reported quarter, the company and its co-investment ventures accomplished $900 million of financings. Finally, the company exited first-quarter 2017 with cash and cash equivalents of $395.8 million, significantly down from $807.3 million at the end of the prior year.

Outlook Raised

Prologis raised the core FFO per share outlook for full-year 2017. The company now projects core FFO per share in the range of $2.72–$2.78, up from $2.60–$2.70 guided earlier, reflecting an increase of $0.10 at the midpoint. The company anticipates net effective same store NOI (Prologis share) to grow at 4.50–5.25% compared to the previous outlook of 4.00–5.00%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates. There have been five revisions higher for the current quarter, while looking back an additional 30 days, we can see even more upward momentum. There have been six moves higher compared to one lower in the last two months. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted by nearly 6% due to these changes.

ProLogis, Inc. Price and Consensus

 

ProLogis, Inc. Price and Consensus | ProLogis, Inc. Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, ProLogis' stock has a subpar Growth Score of 'D', though it is lagging a bit on the momentum front with an 'F'. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated also a grade of 'F' on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'F'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate investors will probably be better served looking elsewhere.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock. The magnitude of these revisions also looks promising. The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an above inline return from the stock in the next few months.


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