UK banks must bolster defences against consumer loan defaults -Bank of England
(Adds economist reaction)
By David Milliken and Huw Jones
LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - British banks have
underestimated the risks from a surge in consumer borrowing and
need to hold an extra 10 billion pounds of capital to guard
against future dangers, the Bank of England said on Monday.
Unsecured consumer lending is growing at nearly 10 percent a
year, far faster than incomes, and the BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) said the low rate of
defaults at present had more to do with strong employment growth
than prudent long-term lending.
Last month the BoE forecast the economy would slow next
year, partly due to Britain's looming departure from the
European Union, and earlier this month it said it was likely to
start raising interest rates in the coming months.
"Lenders overall are placing too much weight on the recent
performance of consumer lending in benign conditions as an
indicator of underlying credit quality. As a result, they have
been underestimating the losses they could incur in a downturn,"
the BoE said in a statement.
If there was a sharp downturn that pushed unemployment up to
9.5 percent - more than double its current rate - and caused the
Bank of England to raise rates to 4 percent from a current 0.25
percent, British lenders could face 30 billion pounds in losses.
On average, 20 percent of consumer loans would need to be
written off over a three-year period, compared with a 2 percent
write-off rate at present, the BoE said.
Last year, the BoE only estimated a 13 percent write-off
rate, based on a scenario which did not include a big increase
in interest rates as well as a different make-up of lending.
Monday's warning is part of a fuller assessment of bank
risks which the BoE will publish on Nov. 28. After that, it will
tell banks how much extra capital they need to hold based on the
individual riskiness of their lending.
For example, credit card lending has an expected write-off
rate of 25 percent in a crisis, while car finance would only see
a 10 percent loss, even if second-hand car prices fall as well.
The extra 10 billion pounds is small in the context of the
280 billion pounds of core capital held by British lenders, but
the BoE said it expected banks to take the greater risks into
account in their future lending plans.
INCREMENTAL?
J.P. Morgan (Other OTC: MGHL - news) economist Allan Monks said Monday's announcement
represented an "incrementalist" approach from the BoE's
Financial Policy Committee, as it stopped short of placing
direct curbs on consumer lending.
By contrast, in 2014 the BoE limited lenders' ability to
issue mortgages that were worth more than 4.5 times a borrower's
income, and a separate regulator has tightened affordability
checks further.
"More direct intervention in the consumer loan market is
unlikely unless banks fail to comply with the BoE’s
requirements," Monks said.
Unsecured consumer lending is only an eighth of the size of
mortgage lending, and does not play a big role in overall
consumer spending growth, the BoE said.
But unlike mortgage lending, there is a high risk of
defaults during sharp economic downturns.
The BoE said it still intended to raise a separate
counter-cyclical risk buffer to 1 percent in November from 0.5
percent.
As well as setting interest rates, the BoE is responsible
for financial stability and much regulation, though conduct and
consumer protection is mostly the job of a separate body, the
Financial Conduct Authority.
Britain's opposition Labour Party proposed capping credit
card interest payments in a major speech on Monday.
FCA chief executive Andrew Bailey told Reuters that other
measures to help heavily indebted borrowers should be given time
to work first.
Separately, the BoE said Brexit posed big legal challenges
for about a quarter of derivatives contracts, which businesses
use to hedge against interest rate and currency moves, and
either new legislation or the redrafting of thousands of
contracts would be needed.
(Editing by Andy Bruce and Catherine Evans)