Here we go again. Rumors that the country’s (distant) third-biggest wireless carrier T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS) and beleaguered fourth-place player Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) are merging have resurfaced. Both stocks jumped on the rekindled, recycled news, and though TMUS as well as S stock have both since pulled back a bit, hope is still in the market’s ether… this idea just keeps coming back again too often for there not to be something to it.

Nevertheless, while few would disagree that a partner is the only thing that could make Sprint a serious contender against the likes of AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) — and somewhat ditto for T-Mobile — the possibility isn’t exactly an ironclad reason to make a new bet on Sprint stock.

Back to the Negotiation Table

Just for the record, neither company has confirmed the rumors are true… this time around. It’s not an idea that is hard to believe, though. Just a few months ago, the two parties more or less confirmed they were willing to discuss the possibility. Those talks were suspended, however, and, shortly thereafter, Sprint said it was going to speak with cable giants Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR) about a potential team-up that would bring a new kind of bundle to consumers. It doesn’t appear those discussions worked out for Sprint, though, given the recent rumors.

Talk of a potential merger between Sprint and T-Mobile goes much further back than the middle of this year, however.

TMUS and S stock owners with strong memories might recall that the two parties came to a merger agreement in 2014, but ultimately abandoned the pairing following reports that the U.S. Department of Justice would seek to block the deal on the grounds of antitrust potential.

It’s not the first time T-Mobile has been on the wrong side of the DOJ’s monopoly-fighting opinion. The antitrust watchdog also barred AT&T and T-Mobile from merging in 2011.

Little has changed on the telecom landscape in the meantime. The Justice Department has been happy with the status quo — two majors and two minors — for years now, and as long as Sprint and T-Mobile are surviving well enough to keep Verizon and AT&T in check, odds are good the federal government’s commerce concerns will once again seek an injunction against a merger.

In other words, both organizations are going to have a tough time proving the public is better served rather than worse off with only three providers. That fact that VZ and T stock both jumped on the prospect of a Sprint/T-Mobile merger clearly says most observers think such a pairing would lead to less competition, not more.

T-Mobile has to Live With the Consequences

Indeed, even if the DOJ is somehow swayed differently this time around, there’s still the lingering possibility that T-Mobile CEO John Legere may balk at the debt baggage Sprint would bring with it (though it might be more accurate to say Deutsche Telekom AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:DTEGY) would balk — it’s the controlling owner of T-Mobile US and may need to provide or back the needed financing).

Sprint is still sitting on $34.4 billion worth of long-term liabilities and, while Deutsche Telekom and/or T-Mobile could effectively refinance that debt on better terms, it’s still Sprint’s operation that would ultimately need to provide the cash flow to make those interest payments and eventually pay back the loans’ principle. That’s anything but a sure thing.

Legere may also be keenly aware that while Sprint has seen a handful of successful waves of subscriber growth of late, much of that growth was spurred by cutthroat pricing that isn’t fiscally sustainable. An unknown number of the subscribers Sprint brings with it could quickly defect if T-Mobile doesn’t offer them the same dirt-cheap pricing Sprint CEO Marcelo Claure was willing to offer.

There’s also the not-so-small matter of integrating two companies that have not only been built independently of one another, but were largely built to compete against each other.

Bottom Line for Sprint Stock

None of this is to suggest a merger of Sprint and T-Mobile will never happen; there are some clear synergies. Sprint owns a proverbial ton of high-frequency spectrum that, so far, is mostly unusable, as the company waits for 5G — and the Internet of Things (IoT) — to become the new norm.

T-Mobile, meanwhile, is a proven marketing machine and is ready to hit the ground running with its IoT technology. For instance, T-Mobile will launch the nation’s first narrowband IoT network in 2018. Without enough radio frequencies to power them though, that capability means little.

Moreover, even if Deutsche Telekom or T-Mobile decide they are willing to tackle the integration of Sprint, and even if the Department of Justice decides things are different this time, there’s still no assurance an offer would be at a significant premium above and beyond the current price of $8.00 for S stock. It’s already going to cost plenty to a buyer as is.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter.