Malcolm Turnbull’s fixed smile in his parliamentary courtyard on Friday fooled no one.
This is now pure crisis management for the government, which, in its worst week since taking office, has lost two ministers courtesy of the high court’s deliberations, and its working majority on the floor of the parliament.
Only recently Turnbull was telling people without qualification that the high court would find Barnaby Joyce eligible to be in the parliament. He was dead wrong.
The prime ministerial overstatement, while embarrassing, is the least of Turnbull’s problems at this point.
Tony Windsor won’t be running in New England but that doesn’t mean the New England byelection will be a cake-walk for Joyce.
Windsor can still stir the pot, in the full glare of the national media, which will be swarming around New England like wasps around a nest. There will also be a One Nation candidate, giving country folks a place to park a protest vote in the event they are so inclined, and possibly a candidate from the shooters party.
Joyce was also overly frank on Friday. Perhaps it was his relief talking, but he admitted that despite occupying his cabinet post tenaciously in the face of the serious questions over his eligibility, in his “gut” he knew he was gone.
If anyone wants to challenge the ministerial decision-making during his period in no-man’s land, that’s a handy admission to have in your back pocket.
Labor was onto this stumble in two seconds flat, and will use it (not that it needs any encouragement) to raise merry hell once parliament resumes – if it resumes before the New England byelection on 2 December.
Courtesy of the high court’s deliberations, the current numbers on the floor of the lower house are 74 government, 74 Labor and crossbench. Those are mischief numbers, heart-stopping numbers.
The government has the option to disappear the inconvenient sitting weeks; off session, that only requires a discussion with the Speaker. But that would be a bold move, a public admission that it couldn’t control the parliament, with significant political ramifications.
Assuming the parliament returns before the byelection is resolved, the government has breathing room with backing from Cathy McGowan, the Victorian independent, who is guaranteeing confidence and supply, and the NXT lower house MP Rebekha Sharkie, said on Friday she didn’t think the country was ready for another election.
While there is comfort to be had from the crossbench, while those guarantees are vital for the government needing a flotation device to get through its difficulties, the Speaker, Tony Smith, plays the parliament straight down the line.
In the past he’s declined to shut down embarrassing tactical skirmishes which have inconvenienced the government, allowing debate to proceed.
In an interview with me six months ago, Smith was very clear that he would not use his casting vote from the chair in the event of a tie (the only time Smith’s vote is relevant) to manufacture a majority that didn’t exist on the floor of the House.
On legislative debates, or on no-confidence motions, you don’t, from the Speaker’s chair, use your casting vote to manufacture a majority that doesn’t exist on the floor of the chamber, Smith says. “If in the final vote there is not a majority, you don’t vote to give it one.”
Piling difficulty on difficulty is the resolution of Fiona Nash’s future. Nash was knocked out on Friday by the high court, but she wants to remain in politics rather than see her Senate spot go to the Liberal Hollie Hughes.
The prime minister on Friday was referring to Nash in the past tense, as if she had already passed into history, but that’s more wishful thinking than concrete reality at this point. Nash isn’t out without a fight.
Even if the government winds its way through the current mess, keeping its feet in the difficulties, the government’s numbers travails in the lower house are also not over yet.
We’ve all forgotten, but there is currently another high court case against another government MP, the National David Gillespie, which will grind on later in December.
Turnbull once used to remark breezily that we lived in exciting times.
I really can’t remember the last time he said that.