Dodge & Cox Comments on GlaxoSmithKline
- By Holly LaFon
The Fund recently re-established a position in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK), after selling it in 2015. Based in the United Kingdom, the company has leading therapeutic franchises in respiratory care and HIV. In addition to its traditional pharmaceuticals business, the company is diversified through strong and growing businesses in vaccines and over-the-counter consumer health.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with GSK. Click here to check it out.
The intrinsic value of GSK
In 2015, we sold GlaxoSmithKline based on market headwinds and a higher valuation. The company's pharmaceuticals business was suffering from pricing pressure on a key respiratory drug, Advair, and the pipeline of new drug launches was weak. The valuation, at 20 times forward earnings, was relatively expensive and did not sufficiently compensate for the risks. Some of those risks, including continued weakness in Advair sales, materialized, and the valuation declined after we sold the position.
In the second half of 2017, however, we built a position in GlaxoSmithKline again based on a more favorable fundamental long-term outlook and a lower valuation (12 times forward earnings). In the respiratory care division, declines in Advair sales should be offset by new drugs, aided by a new inhaler. The HIV segment is growing at healthy rates due to increased adoption of Dolutegravir, a drug that blocks an enzyme needed for HIV to replicate. Combined with continued growth in vaccines and consumer health, the company should achieve modest earnings growth. Meanwhile, the management team has also been revamped. The new CEO is focusing on renewing the pharmaceutical pipeline and has brought in a well-regarded head of R&D to lead that effort. Improvements in the drug pipeline will take time to manifest, but in the meantime, the company continues to generate stable cash flow and has an attractive 6% dividend yield. On December 31, GlaxoSmithKline was a 1.4% position in the Fund.
From Dodge & Cox's fourth quarter 2017 shareholder letter.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with GSK. Click here to check it out.
The intrinsic value of GSK
