I posted an earlier preview of UK January retail sales here: GBP traders heads up for retail sales data due Friday - previews

but a few more now

  • Reminder - the data is due at 0930 GMT

Nomura:

  • Official sales volumes have been volatile over the past two months, rising over 1% m-o-m in November, but then falling back by more than that in December. Generally, however, survey evidence has held up (BRC and CBI volumes growth) despite reports of a mixed Christmas.
  • We expect a rebound in January driven primarily by volatility, but improving fundamentals in 2018 (rising wages, lower inflation) should be positive for the sector.

Capital Economics:

  • Solid survey readings suggest the monthly fall in retail sales in December was at least partly reversed in January.
  • The December figures themselves were distorted by consumers bringing forward purchases into November as retailers offered large discounts early on in the festive retailing period. While the retail sales figures are seasonally adjusted, the ONS does not yet take account of the fairly new phenomenon of "Black Friday". As such, some reversal of the 1.5% m/m fall in sales in December looks likely.
  • What's more, survey measures suggest that the underlying annual pace of sales growth may have also picked up. Both the CBI Distributive Trades Survey and our measure of real sales growth, ascertained from the BRC's survey, point to official retail sales growth of a little over 2% y/y.
  • That compares to a pace of 1.4% y/y in December. We have pencilled in a monthly rise in sales of 0.5%.
  • As sales fell in January 2017, that would see annual sales growth accelerate to 2.5%

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