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The US Dollar is on day four of a rebound from fresh 2018 lows, thanks to traders covering their short dollar positions in the face of what could be a hawkish set of FOMC minutes this afternoon. It’s worth considering, though, that the January FOMC meeting took place before the January NFP report was released (which showed building wage pressures) and before the volatility explosion a few weeks back. Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen has recouped all of its losses on the day, with USD/JPY now back to even. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain lower after Euro-Zone PMI figures fell short of expectations and the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, February 20, 2018 – North American Releases
The big event on the calendar today in North America is the release of the January FOMC meeting minutes. You can read previews from strategists Christopher Vecchio, CFA and James Stanley ahead of time, and be sure to follow the details of the release in the DailyFX Real Time News feed at 14 EST/19 GMT.
DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Wednesday, February 21, 2018
IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDJPY
USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 68.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Dec 29 when USDJPY traded near 113.0; price has moved 5.0% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Feb 08 when USDJPY traded near 108.552. The number of traders net-long is 13.8% lower than yesterday and 3.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 29.3% higher than yesterday and 14.4% higher from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “Forex Setups Across Major USD-Pairs Ahead of FOMC, ECB Minutes” by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
- “Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin - Charts and Prices | Webinar” by Nick Cawley, Analyst
- “Will January FOMC Minutes Cement the US Dollar Bottom?” by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
- “Short-term Trading Outlook for USD, Euro, Yen & Various Cross-rates” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Further CAD Downside Possible on Firmer USD, Weaker Crude Oil” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
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