Coming up at 2145 GMT (22 February 2018) is New Zealand Retail Sales (excl inflation) for the October- December quarter

More ... Preview via Westpac:

Retail spending posted a modest 0.2% gain in the September quarter. Some of the softness we saw was due to declines in the volatile vehicle and fuel categories. However, core spending growth also slowed following earlier temporary boosts associated with high profile sporting events.

  • We expect the December quarter retail spending figures will show that New Zealand households ended 2017 with a bang.

We're forecasting a 1.4% gain in spending over the quarter. Monthly spending figures have shown solid increases in core spending categories in recent months.

ANZ:

... Q4 Retail Trade Survey, which should show a decent end to the year for sales volume growth.

  • We have pencilled in a 1.2% q/q lift in total sales volumes, which would certainly be a jump from Q3's modest 0.2% q/q growth (although that, in part, was impacted by an unwind in hospitality-related spending following some key tourist events in Q2).
  • Electronic Card Transaction figures have indeed highlighted this acceleration, with total (nominal) retail spending growing 1.8% q/q in Q4 after contracting 0.6% q/q in Q3. We believe some of this acceleration reflects price effects (with seasonally adjusted tradable CPI inflation rising 0.2% q/q in Q4 after falling over the prior two quarters - with higher petrol prices a key contributor), although there should be some broader strength under the hood too. But ... we don't expect this pace of sales growth to be maintained.

Quarterly volatility aside, we see retail spending growing at a more modest rate going forward vis-à-vis the recent experience as households look to rebuild savings. But on top of that, the strong boost provided by international tourist spending over recent years is also something we expect to slow. While tourism is having a boomer year, the stronger NZD will eat into average visitor spending, and we see visitor arrivals growth moderating as new route development and new airline arrivals slow due to capacity pressures.

ASB:

Following a lacklustre Q3, we envisage that both total and core (ex-auto and fuel) retail volumes will rebound in the final quarter of 2017. The lift in quarterly volumes is expected to be underpinned by rebounding sales volumes for supermarket sales, furniture and food and beverage services. Firming vehicle registrations also point to a rebound in vehicle retail volumes. Not all retail components are expected to increase, with liquor retailing and non-store and commission-based retail volumes most likely to fall following strong recent increases, as could apparel retail. High fuel prices could likely result in consumers continuing to redirect expenditures to other areas.

Despite the becalmed housing market, the prospect of increased government support, increasing wages and higher producer incomes are expected to translate into solid rates of consumer spending going forward. We expect annual growth in retail spending volumes to remain around 4-5% over 2018.