USD/JPY Price forecast for the week of March 19, 2018, Technical Analysis

This pair tends to be very sensitive to risk appetite in general, as the Japanese yen is the ultimate “safety currency.” Because of this, I think the next couple of weeks will be very interesting for this pair, as there are a lot of concerns about a looming trade war between China and the United States, and perhaps a handful of other countries such as Russia. If that’s the case, it will most certainly pound the stock markets around the world, and that tends to favor the Japanese yen overall. If we were to break down below the uptrend line that I have marked on the chart, and then clear the 105 handle, I think the market probably goes looking towards the 100 handle after that. That’s an area where I would expect to see a lot of support, and I think it would be a very difficult place to deal with the market from a longer-term standpoint. However, we have plenty of room between here and there to start selling if we get to break down.

USD/JPY Video 19.03.18

The alternate scenario of course is that we continue to bounce from the uptrend line, but right now it looks as if the market is ready to take off to the upside. We would need some type of good news in the marketplace to turn things around, and perhaps reaching towards the 107.50 level. A break above the 107.50 level would be a very strong sign, especially if we can jump above the 108 handle, as it clears that zone of previous support. Move above there has me looking for the 110 handle.

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