- USD-weakness is now driving spot to daily lows in the 57.45/40 band.
- Russian Retail Sales expanded less than expected 1.8% YoY.
- US FOMC meeting, ‘dots plot’, next of relevance in the docket.
The broad-based selling pressure around the greenback is now forcing USD/RUB to drop to the area of session tops in the 57.45/40 band.
USD/RUB weaker on data, USD-selling
The pair came under further downside pressure today amidst the generalized and renewed offered bias surrounding the buck.
In addition, the ongoing rally in crude oil prices is motivating the barrel of the European reference Brent crude to record fresh tops in the mid-$68.00s, lending support to RUB and thus collaborating with the downside.
In the data universe, Russian Retail Sales expanded at an annualized 1.8%, missing consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.0% (from 5.2%) during February.
In the meantime, the pair is receding from Monday’s multi-week tops just above 58.00 the figure, with RUB under scrutiny in light of the recent poisoning scandal between Russia and the UK.
Looking ahead, spot should remain vigilant on the upcoming FOMC meeting and the revised economic outlook as well as the updated ‘dots plot’.
USD/RUB levels to watch
At the moment the pair is down 0.11% at 57.44 and a break below 57.22 (10-day sma) would expose 56.83 (21-day sma) and then 55.59 (low Jan.25). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 58.02 (high Mar.19) seconded by 58.16 (200-day sma) and finally 58.75 (2018 high Feb.9).
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