This is the make or break week for expectations of an August BOE rate hike

Cable continues to hug the area between the 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages today, but is now trading near the upper band of that with buyers looking for a near-term break. The highs now touch 1.3247 on the day.

But regardless of price action today, the focus this week will be on the next three days instead.

17 July - UK May wages report

18 July - UK June inflation report

19 July - UK June retail sales data

Those three data points will be key in driving sterling sentiment this week, with the focus slowly being shifted towards the chances of a BOE rate hike in August. In my view, that will override any Brexit rhetoric in the near-term.

The OIS market has about a 70% probability of a rate hike next month by the BOE, and money market pricing sits near those levels as well. Positive data points will help to cement that and a rate hike will surely be a shoe-in. But negative data will likely give a bit of a rethink and it will ultimately come down to how much the market prices out a rate hike.

If it were similar to April where the chances dwindled to ~30% probability, then it's hard to believe that the BOE will shock the market without giving any prior signals. At this point, the BOE wants to raise rates surely given the posture of their tone - in saying that they will have enough information on Q2 figures to make a decision.

You don't say that unless you're opening yourself up to a likelihood of raising rates. But as mentioned above, ultimately economic data this week is king.

So, what are levels to look out for until the reports hit?

Downside levels remain defined by support at 1.3220 (near the 100-hour MA), 1.3190-00, and key support levels near 1.3100 and the daily support @ 1.3055. Meanwhile, key upside levels remain @ 1.3280, 13300 and 1.3350.

Those will be some of the key technical levels to look out for even when the data is out. So while trading today may be a bit of a dud, the next few days is certainly going to be an interesting one for cable - not least when there are questions being posed of the dollar index too.