EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – EUR/USD Moves Upward Despite ECB Jens Weidmann’s Dovish Comment

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.17032 as the price consolidates Friday’s price action in a quiet setting where the single currency was able to steadily rise above 1.1685 from the London lows of 1.1613 -(The single currency had accelerated lower to 1.1613 after breaking below 21-DMA 1.1651). Market was pretty quiet into Friday’s close with the greenback little changed. It has climbed higher in the DXY by 0.36% by the end of European markets, (EUR -0.4 as NY walked in on Friday), but gave back those gains enabling the G10’s to take advantage of a return ticket. Indeed, risk sentiment was mixed to end the week, with equities little changed although robust into the close as investors had been encouraged on Thursday that signs of a full-blown trade war were receding.

EURUSD Nears 1.17

The Fed’s Monetary Policy Report conveyed an upbeat tone on recent economic developments and signaled a continued gradual approach to rate hikes – however, the market paid little attention. We also had some Fed speech that came from Kaplan, who expects 1-2 more hikes this year but was showing his own concerns about trade. Bostic sees inflation approaching 2% as a sign of economic health. Meanwhile German press reported that Bundesbank president Weidmann warned the German government that the economy was slowing more than expected. Jens warned the German cabinet to prepare for harder times to come, with a potential economic downturn beginning to firm up into a reality, and Weidmann noted that the ECB has little room to act on monetary policy, as the central bank’s normalization has been too slow.

The Bundesbank recently cut its GDP forecast for 2018 from 2.5% to 2% as Germany’s own central bank prepares for a downturn, with much of the concern focused on trade and political tensions. The week’s US data highlight is today, with June retail sales scheduled to release at 1230 GMT which is expected to turn out bearish as forecasts show the data at 0.6% as opposed to previous months reading at 0.8%. A weaker-than-expected figure could yield a stronger follow-through to Friday’s Bullish trigger. Expected support and resistance for the pair are at 1.1670 / 1.1645 / 1.1600 and 1.1730 / 1.1765 / 1.1800 respectively.