Floor broken and the pair runs

The EURCAD fell below the 50% and a floor near that level and ran. That area came in at 1.58248-373 area. We are currently trading down at toward 1.5700.

The pair has been toying with a break of that floor but just could not get below. Yesterday, the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) did a good job of stalling the corrective rally. The 100 hour MA (blue line) put a ceiling on the pair today before the break lower. The fall has also taken the price below the 61.8% at 1.5747. That is a risk level for shorts now. Stay below is more bearish.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the next downside target will look toward the 1.56413 level. That is the 38.2% of the move up from the January 2018 low.

Fundamentally, the pair has gotten a push from comments that Trump wants to complete the NAFTA broad discussions in the next week or so. Whether that is doable or not is up in the air. It could just be a way for Trump to deflect attention from China/Amazon fight, to something more positive. The administration does tend to jump from talking point to talking point as he/they wait for negative news to fade away.