Metals have been on fire since the latest Russian sanctions
Nothing is hotter than nickel at the moment. The industrial metal is up 15% since the start of the month and 7% today.
It's finally escaped the bear market of 2014-2015 and is now approaching the 61.8% retracement of that drop.
Where next? The problem is that this is partly a story of global supply/demand dynamics and partly a story of sanctions/tariffs.
The two things massively different but impossible to quantify in the price. Global supply/demand can't easily be upended but sanctions can.
It's the same story in aluminum, which is up 30% this month because of the sanctions on Russia's Rusal. It's at the highest since 2011.
Technically, it might be time to separate the two. Aluminum has been genuinely hit by the sanctions but nickel not so much. The nickel chart looks like a bit of a blowout today while aluminum still has some room towards the 2011 high.
Either way, headline watchers need to be wary.
