It has been a down and up day. Back to where it all started.
The EURUSD closed at 1.1789 yesterday - right near the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below).
The price first moved to a low in the Asian session at 1.17559. The swing low from last Wednesday and Friday bracketed that level at 1.17626 and 1.1748 respectively. The price stalled and moved higher.
The run higher broke back above the 100 hour MA and extended to and just above the 38.2% of the move down from last week's high at 1.18227. The high reached 1.1829.
The price has just moved back down to the 100 hour MA and back to where we started. As I type, both have been broken (the close 1.1789. the 100 hour MA at 1.17878). The low just reached 1.1784. Does the pair stall here, or do traders give up on the topside idea?
Remember the pair did stall yesterday at a key support target from the daily at 1.1712-17 area (see chart below). Swing lows from November and December and the 38.2% retracement were all clustered at that level.
That was good enough to have traders think about "retracement time" and the price retraced 38.2% of the last leg lower (from 1.1715 to 1.1829). Was it enough?
That is where the 100 hour MA comes in. It will tell the "trading weather" today. Move below, more bearish. Stay above, the corrective idea is still in play. What do you like?
So we trade at a key barometer for buyers and sellers right now. Sellers have been the dominant over the last month or so as the price trended more lower (into the 38.2% on the daily chart), but buyers are sticking their nose in the fight with a move to the 38.2% on the hourly chart today (and bouncing off the daily charts support). Watch the 100 hour MA for the "trading weather".
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