Trades above and below the Wednesday low (PS going lower now).
There was a slew of ECB sources headlines that sent the EURUSD up a little and then back down a little. The price is trading back above and below the Wednesday low at 1.16744 area. The low today reached 1.16613. There is a lower trend line on the hourly chart at 1.1646 that is the next target on more weakness.
Technically on the topside, the pair has done a good job of staying below its 100 hour MA since Tuesday afternoon (blue line in the chart above). That MA comes in now at 1.1741 (and moving lower) There is a trend line just below that level on the same chart.
A level of importance ahead of that is the 1.1712-17 area. The 1.17133 is the 38.2% of the move up from the December 2016 low. The 1.1712 and 1.1717 were swing low from November/December 2017. On Monday this week, the low stalled at 1.17159. The last three trading days has seen the price trade above and below that area (admittedly), but I still consider the area a barometer for bulls and bears today.
As I type, the buyers could not do much with the headline push and the price is back down retesting the lows of the day at 1.1663. The German 10 year yield is now trading below the 0.400% level at 0.3888%. That is down -8.2 bps. The Italian BTP are going the other way at up +13.6 bps to 2.535%. Spanish and Portugal yields are also up sharply (in yield) as investors get out the risking pairs. Spain up 13.2 bps. Portugal up 11.3 bps.
Watching the lower trend line now. A break below would start to look toward 1.15538. That was the low from November 2017.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
