12-cent drop erased

At this time last year, USD/CAD was in the midst of a swan dive as the Bank of Canada made a surprise shift to a hawkish stance. On June 20, 2017, the pair traded just below 1.3300. The next day it bounced to a high of 1.3348.

That would have been an amazing time to sell as it plunged to 1.2062 by early September.

Since then, it's been a slow, steady recovery. It accelerated in the last month as NAFTA negotiations fell apart and Trump put metals tariffs on Canada with talk of auto tariffs to come.

The main thing to watch is the US administration. Trump is a tough man to handicap. At the moment, Canada and the US are miles away from a deal and things appear to be getting worse but Wilbur Ross said Canada isn't a security threat on steel, seeming to undermine the President. Trump himself was just smiling and laughing with Kim Jong-Un only weeks after trading insults with him.