This via Westpac, their chart of the week is the AUD/USD and also vs. its trade weighted index

  • The decline in the Australian dollar has provided some reprieve from tightening financial conditions centred on a higher BBSW, higher term rates and a modest increase in credit spreads.
  • Following a decisive shift down from USD0.78, during April-May, the Australian dollar has now broken through the USD0.75 level, then 0.74, before retracing to hold back around the figure.
  • The question to ask is whether the current level is evidence of a low, or if it is instead merely a pause for breath in a longer downtrend. We continue to argue the latter, believing that the Australian dollar will inevitably lose altitude to USD0.72 by March 2019, and thereafter test USD0.70 in the second half of 2019. This view comes as a consequence of our expectations for the US and commodity prices.

(bolding is mine. Also, I posted WPAC on the AUD last week, here: Westpac on AUD - now below weekly fair value. Risks and target for AUD/USD)