The Euro has of course continue to struggle with the situations in Turkey, as there is contagion fears of European banks, especially in France and Spain, being so heavily exposed to Turkish debt. However, we did get a little bit of a reprieve during the trading session.
The EUR/USD pair has been somewhat noisy during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see the markets worry about the Turkish situation. Because of this, I think it’s only a matter of time before we need to make some type of move, and headline from Ankara could be the catalyst. If not, maybe it’ll be from the United States, as this situation does seem to be getting any better. This has people worried about the European Union in general, and it has weighed upon the Euro over the last couple of weeks.
Now that we are below the 1.15 handle, it’s likely that we will continue to go lower eventually, at least from a technical analysis standpoint. I anticipate that we could probably move is low as 1.13, but some of my contemporaries or even calling for as low as 1.05 over the longer-term. Obviously, the US dollar continues to be the strongest currencies in the world, and by market mechanics a loan, that will probably continue to weigh upon the Euro. If we did recapture the 1.15 handle, if we can break above that level and close above there I daily chart, that could change things. Until then though, I’d be suspicious of rallies and be looking for exhaustion to continue to sell as that trait has worked out so nicely. Expect volatility, keep your position size small, and recognize that this is an extremely erratic market currently.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.