EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro relatively flat on Thursday

The EUR/USD pair has tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but ran into a significant amount of resistance at the 1.14 handle. The level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number, and therefore makes quite a bit of resistance just on its own. Beyond that, there is a certain amount of supply there as well that we had seen a couple of days ago jump into the market, so I think we are more likely to roll over than anything else.

The Turkish currency issue has taken front and center, and we have seen the Turkish lira bounce a bit over the last 24 hours, but at this point nothing’s been settled, and more pain is probably coming. The question now is whether European banks will be forced to swallow loans that were given out to Turkish corporations. This has a lot of people worried about the European Union in general, and the risk of contagion. The 1.13 level underneath would be a target, but if we break down below there, I think it’s more likely that we go all the way down to at least the 1.10 level after that.

There’s a lot of noise in this market, but overall the chart has been drifting from the upper left to the lower right, so keep that in mind as we are very clearly in a downtrend, and I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon. Breaking below the 1.15 level was a major turn of events.

EURUSD analysis Video 17.08.18