AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar pulls back a bit to find buyers

The Australian dollar initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday but turned around to reach above the 0.72 level again. I think the 0.7250 level is the epicenter of the overall level that we are testing right now, if we can break above the 0.73 level the market probably goes much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 0.75 level.

AUD/USD Video 15.11.18

The alternate scenario is that we break down below the lows of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, which should send this market down to the 0.71 handle, possibly even the 0.70 level where I expect to see a lot of support. As the pair is highly sensitive to the Chinese economy, then I think that the trade war situation between the Americans and the Chinese will have a huge impact on this pair. Ultimately, I think the world is waiting to see what happens in Argentina later this month between the Chinese and the Americans, and there have been recently a couple of softening comments that gives a little bit of hope for the buyers. However, we have seen this movie before and what happens is that eventually something is said that has people understanding that we are nowhere near any type of conclusion.

If we do eventually get some type of resolution between the two countries, that should send the Australian dollar much higher, at least for the short term. Otherwise though, if we break down below the 0.70 level, then we unwind to the 0.68 level. This is a market that is going to be driven mainly by external factors, not internal.