Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Thursday 15 November 2018
- RBA's Debelle says curbs on lending have improved the resilience of the economy
- All China October new home prices +8.6% y/y (unchanged from Sep)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9392 (vs. yesterday at 6.9402)
- More on the US China trade talks having begun already - China concessions
- Australia November jobs report: Employment +32.8K (vs. expected +20K)
- NZ PM Ardern says discussed trade with US VP Pence
- Goldman Sachs on the yuan again, and on 7 again
Powell:
- Fed Chair Powell: US on unsustainable fiscal path (referring to huge debt acceleration)
- Fed's Powell on stock market - this matters but main focus is on real economy
- Fed's Powell: Economy has benefitted from trade, needs to be free and fair
- Fed's Powell says all FOMC meetings are now 'live'
- Fed Chair Powell … still awaiting any comments from him on the economy or policy
- UBS on what to expect from the PBOC before year end (spoiler … an easing)
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 15 November 2018
- Oil headline inventory shows another large build, larger than expected
- ICYMI - Crypto slaughter today, Bitcoin off 700USD
Brexit:
- Senior UK government official - no one threatened to resign at Brexit cabinet meeting
- Irish PM says Brexit draft approval paves the way for … a meeting
- EU's Barnier - today is a big step towards an orderly Brexit
- EU's Barnier press conference: Deal a crucial step towards concluding talks
- EU trade commissioner says has retaliation tariff list ready in case of US auto tariffs
- Further EU Brexit meetings scheduled later this week
- EU says UK and EU will access each other's markets on basis of equivalence
- Brexit cabinet meeting, supports May's draft deal, no ministers have resigned
- EU'S Verhofstadt: Draft deal makes Brexit possible while maintaining close relationship
- UK PM May says she has cabinet support for her Brexit deal
- UK press report that Cabinet supports Brexit deal for now
New York afternoon news flow was dominated by Brexit related news, with the UK Cabinet endorsing PM May's draft plan. GBP swung around in the lead up and on the announcement, GBP/USD made a move above 1.3050 (briefly) after lows circa 1.2900. Optimism and a thin market helping it along. Do remember though that this just a draft and there is much still to be done. There are still issues unresolved, one effect of the draft plan is to put off deciding on these until later. As the market was reminded of this GBP slid back a little, down to around 1.2980 and tracking relatively sideways since. UK markets open in coming hours, time for a cup of tea before strapping in to the roller coaster for another day. Data due today, preview below, but it'll be Brexit headlines driving the fits and starts in GBP for a good while yet.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke today, Asian time, with nothing surprising to say. There were a few takes about that he was leaning dovish but a live listen to his speech sounded more to me like a careful central bank head taking into account the various factors currently in play. Yes, he mentioned risks around slower global growth, diminishing impact from the US fiscal boost, share market volatility and a tightening in financial conditions, but what responsible head of the Fed wouldn't? Nope, there was nothing in his words to indicate a December rate hike is off the cards.
EUR/USD has edged a little higher, as has USD/CHF. USD/JPY had dipped under 113.40 but is little net changed for the session as I update. Gold had a strong NY session and has been calmer in Asia. Bitcoin (and other cryptos) had a big fall during US time.
Australian data today was the much watched monthly jobs report. Yet again we had strong employment growth showing up (see bullets above). AUD/USD was marked up, gaining around 50 points after the release. NZD found a bid alongside but it was small and non-persistent.
Still to come:
