ANZ Brexit probabilities - hard exit assessed at 20% (would send GBP/USD toward 1.20)

This in summary from ANZ's latest piece on Brexit

• PM May's statement to Parliament on Brexit plan B looked much the same as Plan A
• Parliament to vote on it on 29 January
• Challenges are expected

Probabilities:

• extension to Brexit deadline 60%
• 'no deal' probability 20%

For the currency:

• GBP/USD could fall on growing risks of a 'no deal', dropping towards 1.20 or below

ps. the remaining 20% of the probabilities;

• revoke Article 50 is 5%
• cross party consensus for a deal 5%
• withdrawal agreement 10%