Last week's move below failed

There is not a whole lot going on and the range for the day in the USDCAD is only 29 pips, but what can be said is the price is bouncing off its 100 day MA today. There have been three separate looks at the MA on the hourly chart with a couple of Asian session bars dipping below but only by a few pips before rebounding. The MA is currently at 1.32258. The current price is just above that at 1.32316.

Last week's move below failed

Last week, the pair moved above the February high at 1.3228 but stalled at 1.3239 and reversed lower. On Friday, the selling continued and the price moved below the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The bears showed their colors after the break of the 200 hour MA as the tests of the line (green line in the chart above) stalled rallies.

The 100 hour MA is at 1.32536 and the 200 hour MA is currently at 1.32623.

The bears are making the play for more control, but it will take a break of the 100 day MA and then the 50% at 1.32036 to add to the bearish sentiment.

Meanwhile, risk defined buyers are fighting the sellers against the MA line. They are hoping for the level to hold and a subsequent move back above the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The good news for them, is risk is defined and limited. They should not like to see trading below the MA level.

So there is a battle at the key level. That is not a surprise. Which way would you lean?