Get outta this range...
Price action is muted on the President's Day holiday but there was enough up and down to help define what traders can look for technically.
The lows for the day attracted buyers at the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above). There was a test in the early hours of the Asian day and again in the early hours of the European session. Each held and the price moved higher.
At the highs, a topside trend line stalled a rally on the first test. The second test moved above, but that break failed before reaching the next upside target at the 38.2% and the highs from last week at the 1.13405 area. The trend line comes in at 1.1321 now. Getting above it and then cracking above the 38.2%/highs at 1.13405 should solicit more buying.
On the downside, the price has since peaking moved back down and below the 200 hour MA at 1.13118, but stays above the 100 hour MA at 1.12967. The last 3-4 hour have traded between those levels. Get below and that should solicit more selling.
The "market" has set the levels for a potential break and run. Much will depend on various balls in the air. The mood at the ECB seems to be becoming a bit less confident about a rebound. Sure they try to keep the thought alive that all is ok, but you get the feeling that maybe deep down, thoughts of rate hikes are more of a dream vs the reality.
Having said, thoughts about what may happen, and what actually happens, is often a different thing. So use the technical levels to your advantage, and listen to the the "market". Stories, can and do often change, but the price action and technical tools can give traders a good idea of how things are progressing.
Look for the break and run.
