- AUD/USD has popped a handful of pips on the knee jerk reaction on the back of the RBA minutes that have watered the neutral seed some more, leaving markets none the wiser as to what the next move from the RBA might be or when it might come.
- AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7135, slightly higher than the Asia session lows of 0.7122 and just below the post RBA minutes highs of 0.7144.
The main takeaway from the minutes stays with the comment, "No strong case for near term rates, better to be a source of stability."
Key comments as follows:
- No strong case for near-term move in rates, better to be a source of stability.
- Monetary Policy Board sees “significant uncertainties” on the economic outlook.
- Interest rates could eventually rise, or fall.
- Probabilities around scenarios were more evenly balanced than before.
- Current policy should allow for progress on unemployment and inflation.
Meanwhile, heads will turn to equity prices for cues in FX today ahead of the U.S. traders coming back to the court to play. the main focus has been on trade talks between the US and China that will continue today, and there was a lot of optimism kicking in at the end of play last week and throughout the weekend that set Asian markets on fire yesterday.
Casting minds back, the Shanghai composite was rallying around 2.68 percent to close at about 2,754.36 while the Shenzhen component added 3.954 percent to close at approximately 8,446.92. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 1.5 percent while Japan's Nikkei 225 ended 1.82 percent to close at 21,281.85 after a jitter open where traders were not quite sure what to make of the weekend China press that warned of cautious optimism over the trade talks.
Looking ahead, Aussie traders will also turn to wages and jobs data.
"We see wage growth chipping away at rate cut expectations. We look for +0.7%/q and 2.44%/y, and closer to 2¾%/y by year-end. For Jan employment our +20k and a steady 65.6% participation rate leaves the unemployment rate at 5.0%. An average of +20k/m leaves the u-rate steady at 5% by year-end, the RBA’s f/c. The Bank will be concerned if it creeps back towards 6% again,"
the analysts at TDS explained.
AUD/USD levels
Valeria Bednarik, the Cheif analyst at FXStreet, explained that in the 4 hours chart shows that the pair struggled around its 100 DMA for most of the day before finally giving up, now closer to a mild bullish 20 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame have eased from their daily highs, the RSI heading nowhere around 53 and the Momentum easing within positive levels, skewing the risk to the downside without confirming it. For the pair to turn bearish, the 0.7070 level should give up.
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