Purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) across the EURzone are due out on Thursday

Goldman Sachs:

PMIs will be pivotal for determining whether Euro area growth is actually going to trough in Q1.

  • We think at least some stabilization will likely be necessary to dispel recession concerns after another downside surprise in German GDP last week.
  • And it would be especially helpful for economic activity to start turning the corner now because we think trade headlines could create some new headline risks for EUR this week.

GS add on the US auto tariff report:

  • US Department of Commerce... auto tariffs as one option in its report
  • The release of this report does not itself raise the odds of tariffs, and some steps by the administration indicate support for auto tariffs may be limited.
  • That said, our DC economists still see a meaningful risk (40%) that broad tariffs are implemented at least temporarily, and even the possibility is a concern for EUR