USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – The Pair Making New Highs

USD/CAD opened up on Friday morning at 1.3372 following minor dips which lifted up later the day. The pair remained resilient for quite some time within the range of 1.3370 and 1.3360. From that sideways pattern, the pair skyrocketed reaching 1.3400 levels. As there was no fundamental Canadian news released on that front, the plunge in crude prices during the same period around 08:00 GMT should probably be the reason for the upshot in the USD/CAD pair.   This Friday morning, as mentioned earlier the crude prices followed a downward graph slumping from $59.94 per barrel to $59.22 per barrel. This fall can be discounted be to the disappointing Iran Oil Exports report that was published in the early hours. The report showcased a lower oil export number for Iran compared to its last two months of oil export numbers. The March export numbers have fallen to around 1 million bpd – 1.1 million bpd. Iranian Oil customers have requested the US for an extension in buying Oil from Iran. The outcome of the US waivers extension will have a major impact on the currency pair USD/CAD in the coming days.

At the time of writing this article (12:41 GMT), the pair was trading at 1.3401.    

Key CAD influencing events scheduled during the day 

Consensus Bullish Events For The Day

At 12:30 GMT, Statistics Canada will be announcing the Retail Sales MoM Number for January. This would be a major turning point for the USD/CAD pair driving it drastically upwards/downwards following the report release. Street Analysts expect the number to rise by +0.4% which had recorded -0.1% for December.

Consensus Bearish Events For The Day

At 12:30 GMT, Bank of Canada (BoC) will be releasing the Consumer Price Index Core (CPI) for the month of February. BoC will be announcing CPI Core both on the MoM and YoY basis. Consensus takes on a highly bearish stance on the CPI Core MoM and YoY. The market expects the CPI Core MoM to report as 0.1% compared to the previous 0.3% while CPI Core YoY to come around 1.2% compared to the previous 1.5%. CPI Core should be considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada while trading the loonie pair.

Consensus In-line Events For The Day

Markit Economics will be releasing the France PMI for March. The market expects the CPI to remain unchanged as the previous CPI YoY January 1.4%.