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Tilson bearish on Align Tech

Apr. 23, 2019 3:29 PM ETAlign Technology, Inc. (ALGN) StockALGNBy: Douglas W. House, SA News Editor12 Comments
  • Speaking at a Wharton Investment Management Alumni Reunion event, noted investor Whitney Tilson presented his case that there is 50% downside risk in Align Technology (ALGN +1.7%). Main points:
  • Key patents that have kept competitors at bay have expired and will expire next month. Downward pressure on prices will result.
  • The Street is valuing the company like a medtech, ignoring the commodity nature of clear aligners.
  • Dentists can produce aligners in-house for $30K - 50K in upfront costs (3D printer) and $100/aligner compared to $1,800/aligner from ALGN.
  • Investors, at the moment, do not seem to share Mr. Tilson's pessimism.
  • The company will release Q1 results tomorrow, April 24, after the close. Consensus view is EPS of $0.83 on revenue of $530.4M.

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