Natural gas markets continue to fall, breaking down below the $2.25 level, which of course is a very negative sign. At this point, I think that the market is probably going to go looking towards the $2.00 level below, which will attract a lot of attention due to how important it is.
Natural gas markets broke down significantly during the week, showing signs of exhaustion yet again by the bullish traders out there. I think that it’s dangerous to try to “catch a falling knife”, so therefore I think it’s probably best to simply wait for rallies on the daily chart to start selling signs of exhaustion. The $2.50 level will attract a lot of attention, so therefore I think that what we are going to see is a “fade the rallies” situation.
Ultimately, if we broke above the $2.50 level, that would be a very bullish sign but I don’t think it happens anytime soon. Even if it does, the $2.60 level above is significantly resistance as well, so I think that’s your next selling opportunity. I have no interest in buying this market until at least October, probably November. Historically, this is the wrong time of year to expect natural gas markets to rally, and the fact that we have failed to do so far tells me that even at these extraordinarily low levels natural gas is dead money and an opportunity to lose money every time you buy it.
There isn’t much else to say other than you should be shorting this market, not buying it.
Please let us know what you think in the comments below
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.