EUR/USD sits just under the 1.1400 so far in the European morning
Buyers are still looking poised following a break of the 200-day MA (blue line) on Friday for the first time since May 2018. Price is extending higher on the day as the pair trades just under the 1.1400 handle but for now I would still say the dollar's decline is rather modest.
Of note, there are large expiries resting at 1.1395-00 (roughly €1.6 billion as of now) so that perhaps is playing a role in capping price action for the time being.
Looking at the bigger picture, the technical break is very suggestive of a further extension towards resistance at 1.1420 next before further resistance is only seen around 1.1450-65. However, the significance of the break on Friday shouldn't be understated and the retracement higher here could have legs to run purely based on technical sentiment alone.
That said, there are a couple of key risk events coming up later this week with Fed chair Powell's speech tomorrow and euro area inflation data still coming on Thursday and Friday. Not to forget, there's also the Trump-Xi meeting as well to consider in all of this.
But for now, buyers are in control - the first time in a long time - so let's see if they can maintain the momentum from the break last week. The risk for buyers now is if price falls back below the 200-day MA.
