- EUR/USD has been restricted to a narrow range of 1.1115-1.1063 since last Friday.
- The pair is currently probing the lower edge of the trading range.
- A range breakdown, if any, could trap sellers on the wrong side of the market if Fed's Powell sounds dovish.
EUR/USD failed to close above 1.11 for the fourth straight day on Thursday and is currently teasing a downside break of the five-day trading range of 1.1115-1.1063.
As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1068. A 4-hour close below 1.1063 would confirm a range breakdown. That would imply a resumption of the sell-off from recent highs near 1.1250 and open the doors for a drop below the psychological support of 1.10.
Focus on Powell's speech
Federal Reserve's (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will speak Friday morning at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, an important gathering of central bankers and economists.
The financial markets are priced for a 25 basis point rate cut in September. At the same time, the markets are also expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver massive stimulus next month.
So far, the dovish ECB expectations have overshadowed the dovish Fed expectations. This is evident from the fact that the EUR/USD dropped by more than 180 pips over the last 2.5 weeks. Also, the Fed has been reluctant to signal aggressive rate cuts.
So, the greenback could take a beating if Powell bows down to political pressure by using the Jackson Hole speech to set the stage for aggressive easing in the near term. In that case, range breakdown in EUR/USD, if any, could be short-lived.
The common currency, however, will likely end up falling below 1.10 if Powell refrains from signaling additional easing, forcing markets to price out prospects of a September rate cut.
Ahead of Powell's speech (due at 14:00 GMT), the pair may also respond to comments by other Fed policymakers and the US housing data.
Technical levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair barely reacted to US PCE inflation data, with the Greenback shedding some pips. Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak ahead of the weekly close.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a widespread holiday restraining action across financial markets. Investors took a long weekend ahead of critical United States employment data next week. Fed Chair Powell coming up next.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230
Gold price holds near a fresh all-time high at $2,236 in thinned trading amid the Easter Holiday. Most major world markets remain closed, although the United States published core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.