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UPDATE 2-Kazakh PM, central bank clash over rising tenge

Published 02/16/2011, 10:45 AM
Updated 02/16/2011, 10:48 AM

* PM to c.bank: no more tenge strengthening

* C.bank says pursuing "the right policy"

* C.bank buys $3.2 bln in Jan-Feb, 60 pct more than in 2010

* Govt sees stronger industry, GDP growth

(Recasts with PM, central bank comments)

By Raushan Nurshayeva

ASTANA, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's prime minister rebuked the central bank on Wednesday for allowing the tenge to appreciate too fast, locking horns with its reformist governor over currency policy in the resource-rich Central Asian state.

The clash between Prime Minister Karim Masimov and Grigory Marchenko, in his second spell at the helm of the central bank, revealed internal discord on how best to manage the impact of a strengthening tenge on Kazakhstan's $147 billion economy.

Marchenko said the central bank had bought $3.2 billion on the foreign exchange market in the first two months of this year to curb appreciation of the tenge

This is 60 percent more than it bought in the whole of 2010.

Despite these purchases, Masimov said the bank had allowed the tenge to strengthen too much, jeopardising prospects for exporters of the commodities Kazakhstan produces in abundance.

"I have certain complaints against the National Bank and personally against Grigory Alexandrovich," Masimov, referring to Marchenko by his name and patronymic, said at a meeting of the parliamentary faction of the ruling Nur-Otan party.

"He is excessively strengthening the national currency, and this weighs heavily on our competitiveness," he said. "Grigory Alexandrovich: you should not strengthen it any further."

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Marchenko, who said he believed the tenge would continue to strengthen in the near term, disputed this assessment and said the central bank was pursuing "the right policy".

"Given the current level of raw material prices on world markets, none of our exporters has so far complained," he said in response to the prime minister. "Apparently, they complain to you, not to us."

Resurgent world prices for the commodities exported by Kazakhstan, including oil, industrial metals and grain, have bolstered the tenge as it prepares to abandon a protective trading corridor in March and return to a managed float.

The weighted average of the tenge on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange was 146.36 per dollar on Wednesday. It has strengthened from 147.34 per dollar at the end of last year.

"The government would like firm economic growth, while the central bank's mandate is to promote price stability and keep inflation no higher than 8 percent," said Alexander Morozov, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at HSBC.

'BALANCED APPROACH'

Kazakhstan's problems mirror those experienced by other emerging economies over the past year and some have imposed more stringent capital controls in response, prompting warnings of a global "currency war".

Marchenko, who has said the tenge would not be allowed to appreciate to 140 against the dollar this year, said it was in the interests of "the entire economy" to contain appreciation.

"There needs to be a balanced approach. This is why we have been buying up dollars; to prevent the tenge from strengthening too fast," he said.

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During the meeting, Masimov did not offer an alternative strategy to curb the currency's appreciation.

A currency dealer at Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan's second-largest lender by assets, said he believed the central bank was pursuing a "balanced" policy that had so far helped to curb tenge growth.

"The tenge has appreciated by just 0.7 percent so far this year. This is pretty smooth," he said.

HSBC's Morozov added: "It's peanuts. It cannot be viewed as damaging to the economy."

Kazakhstan is forecasting economic growth of 5 percent this year, versus 7 percent in 2010, and on Wednesday raised its forecast for industrial output growth to 4.8 percent, citing strong growth in mining and processing. [ID:nLDE71F028]

Inflation accelerated to 1.7 percent month on month in January from 0.7 percent in the previous month, driven by higher food prices. The government is targeting inflation of between 6 percent and 8 percent in each of the next five years.

Marchenko said Kazakhstan's total international reserves, which include the National Fund replenished by windfall revenues from oil exports, had grown to more than $63 billion as of Feb. 14 from less than $59 billion at the end of last year. (Additional reporting by Dmitry Solovyov in Almaty, writing by Robin Paxton; editing by Patrick Graham)

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