The 200 and 100 hour MA converged at 0.6381
The NZDUSD is lower on the day, and the NZD is one of the weakest currencies today, but the fall did run into support defined by the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.62815. The 38.2% comes in at 0.62849. The low today stalled at 0.62826. That was between those two support targets. We currently trade up at 0.6297.
The price just moved to 0.63007 but is backing off. A move above the 0.6300 level - and staying above - would be more bullish intraday now. The 0.6306 level was a swing low on Friday and again today. Above that, and the highs for the day at 0.6320-215 are matched by a high late in the day on Friday.
Last week, the NZDUSD fell to the lowest level since 2015. Looking at the weekly chart below, the lows fell below swing lows from 2015 at 0.6235 on the way to lows at 0.62031. The price bounced modestly off the 0.6300 natural support level. The low also fell short of a lower trend line target at 0.6178 (see weekly chart below0.
The low from 2016 was down at 0.63465. The high over the last 3 weeks reached 0.6347 (week of Sept 22). If the low is in place, getting back above that level will be eyed. Above that the 2018 low at 0.64236 will be another upside target.
SUMMARY: The NZDUSD last week, looked over the edge and decided not to jump. The rebound to the high on Friday at 0.63355, was short of a topside resistance at the 0.63465 level (2016 swing low price).
Today, however, the 100 200 hour moving average are holding support at 0.6280 area.
So there is a battle going on. If you like the buy side, a move back below the 0.6280-82 area will be eyed for confirmation.
If you play the long side, the 0.6306 and the 0.6320-215 are topside targets to get above before making a run at the 0.63465 level.
