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UBS still bullish on Teva despite trimming fair value target; shares up 9%

  • In a note, UBS reiterates its Buy rating on Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA +8.5%) albeit with a revised price target of $12 (from $14).
  • Analyst Kevin Caliendo believes the company is relatively insulated from COVID-19 disruptions and has access to more than $3B in liquidity, if needed. His model suggests that its free cash flow is sufficient to cover outstanding balances through 2022.
  • The basis of the lower fair value target is lower estimated peak sales of migraine med Ajovy (by ~35%) due to the disruption risk of the recently launched autoinjector formulation and lower expected growth (49% vs. 64%) of movement disorder med Austedo this year, both due to lower doctor visits amid COVID-19.

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