- KBW analyst Brian Kleinhanzl analyzes bank dividends in light of the Fed's modified stress tests.
- Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles had indicated that the board will modify this year's stress test to include a current-events analysis, which may make the tests more stressful, Kleinhanzl writes in a note to clients.
- Sees Citigroup (C -2.4%), Goldman Sachs (GS -1.1%), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.8%) most at risk of missing Kleinhanzl's dividend forecast (which assumes dividends staying at current level through Q2 2022), if the test increases stress losses to more than 20%.
- Sees Bank of New York Mellon (BK -1.1%), State Street (STT -1.8%) and Bank of America (BAC -1.7%) dividends least at risk "even if higher increases of loan losses were to occur."