Dollar/yen took a break from its recent volatility, posting small gains last week. on the fundamental front, Japan releases inflation indicators, while the U.S. will publish final GDP and durable goods orders. 

.USD/JPY fundamental mover

The Bank of Japan maintained monetary settings at its policy meeting, as policymakers are hopeful that a global recovery is slowly underway. The bank said that it will provide some $1 trillion to help cash-strapped companies.

In the U.S., May retail sales crushed the forecasts, raising hopes that the U.S. economy is on the mend. The headline figure bounced back with a sparkling gain of 17.7%, after a decline of 16.4% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 7.9 percent. The core reading jumped 12.4%, well above the gain of 5.5 percent. In April, core retail sales declined by 17.2 percent.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell had a grim message for Congress, warning that the U.S. economy was in the midst of a deep downturn, with “significant uncertainty” about how long an economic recovery would take. Powell added that he did not expect a full recovery until the public was convinced that Covid-19 had been contained. Jobless claims showed little movement last week, with a gain of 1.5 million. This was higher than the forecast of 1.3 million.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

109.73 is protecting the 110 level, which has psychological significance.

108.70 (mentioned last week) is next.

108.10 switched to resistance in early June, when USD/JPY fell sharply.

107.30 is next.

106.61 is an immediate support line.

105.55 has held in support since mid-March.

104.65 follows.

The round number of 104 was a key line in May 2008.

102.50 is the final support level for now.

.USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I remain neutral on USD/JPY.

Both the yen and the dollar are safe-haven currencies, but investors have not shown a particular affection for either currency, despite the soft economic conditions across the globe.