EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Sluggish

The Euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday, but certainly looks a bit sluggish. In fact, you could project out to a head and shoulders pattern, but it is a little early to worry about that right now. The 50 day EMA has offered support recently, so I think we may need to go back down towards it in order to retest it for support. The bigger picture, I believe that we are essentially in the middle of the large consolidation area between the 1.20 level on the bottom and the 1.23 level on the top. In other words, I do not necessarily like placing trades at this point, but it is worth noting that this has the possibility of being a “lower high”, which could signify that we are going to see more negative pressure.

EUR/USD Video 26.01.21

While the United States is certainly going to do a lot of stimulus, and most certainly that would weigh upon the US dollar, the reality is that we have already priced most of that concept in this market. What we have not priced in is the fact that the European Union may be locked down longer than thought, due to the lack of coronavirus vaccines making their way to the continent. While this is not a tradable thesis quite yet, it most certainly is something to pay attention to as AstraZeneca is only delivering 60% of the vaccine that was expected. Numbers of infections in the European Union continue to climb, and lockdowns continue to tighten. While the market will try to look through that, the reality is that it might be worse before it gets better.

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