As bottom currency pair to 60 + currencies to include EM's, NZD/USD for the past 3 months ranged from 0.7005 to 0.7321 or 316 pps and 222 pips in the last 2 months. NZD at current prices is contained at 179 pips from the 14 year average at 0.7267 to its vital high / low point at 0.7088.
At 0.7088 and a rising line, the NZD showdown is on the way as ranges compress by the week.
A lower NZD automatically assists to a drop in non USD currencies GBP/USD, EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Required for an NZD/USD drop is NZD/CAD breaks 0.9091, NZD/CHF 06367 and NZD/JPY must clear its 10 year average at 75.46. NZD/USD is following NZD/CAD to trade in tight 200 pip ranges while NZD/JPY remains in severe overbought territory.
GBP/USD next above confronts 1.4300 and the 10 year average at 1.4438 while massive overbought GBP/JPY remains confined between 5 and 10 year averages at 142.40 to 148.29. Both GBP/USD and GBP/JPY as GBP drivers force GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD and GBP/CHF into stratospheric overbought and untouchable as long trade currencies. Short GBP currencies are the only trade strategies available especially to GBP/USD’s 900 pip rise in the past 3 months from 1.3100’s to 1.4000’s.
EUR/USD 1.2082
EUR/JPY 127.22
EUR/CAD 1.5408
EUR/NZD 1.6799
EUR/AUD 1.5548.
GBP/USD 1.3921
GBP/JPY 146.56
GBP/CHF 1.2453
GBP/CAD Doesn’t matter, short anywhere
GBP/NZD 1.9223
GBP/AUD 1.7818
AUD/USD 0.7776
AUD/JPY 81.95
AUD/CHF 0.6956
AUD/CAD 0.9877
NZD/USD 0.7224
NZD/JPY 76.16
NZD/CHF 0.6437
NZD/CAD 0.8142
USD/CAD 1.2704
USD/JPY 105.18
Brian's published works include John Wiley 2011 "Inside the Currency Market", Using Z Scores to Trade Foreign Exchange, 2012. Academic Paper: 2015, A case study in carry trade and cross pair allegiance switching, pre and post 2008.