- In his latest Crypto Outlook, Bloomberg's Mike McGlone notes the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is now trading at a modest discount to its underlying bitcoin (BTC-USD) holdings. As recently as a few weeks ago, the Trust was selling at a whopping premium
- If past is prologue, suggests McGlone, that might mean a bottom in bitcoin, which fell to about $43K last weekend from $58K a few days earlier (it's currently at $49.1K).
- Cycles are always changing though. Another possible reason for the evaporation of GBTC's premium: The launch of the Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OTCPK:OBTC), with fees far lower than the Grayscale product, not to mention a number of other vehicles with which investors - who otherwise might not be able to buy bitcoin directly - can invest in the crypto.
- McGlone also takes a look at bitcoin's famously high volatility. Comparing it to Amazon, McGlone reminds that Jeff Bezos' company was also wildly volatile in its early days. Checking the data now, he finds the 260-day risk measure on bitcoin is about 60% vs. Amazon's 40%. He suggests bitcoin's volatility could drop below Amazon's by 2022.
- More Grayscale competition? The CBOE this week filed to launch a U.S. bitcoin ETF.