Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Form Reversal Pattern

Natural gas prices moved higher on Friday but are still trading in a range. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to become cooler than normal for most mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended in March 2021 at nearly 1.8 Tcf, which is 2% lower than the five-year (2016–20) average.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices moved higher but still form a reversal pattern that looks like a head and shoulder pattern. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.57. Support is seen near the March lows at 2.35. Momentum is flat. The fast stochastic is printing near the signal line. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram has a flat trajectory which points to additional consolidation.

Inventories Ended March Lower Year over Year

EIA estimates that natural gas inventories ended in March 2021 at nearly 1.8 Tcf, which is 2% lower than the five-year average. The winter of 2020–21 had more natural gas withdrawn from storage than the five-year average due to the cold February temperatures in low natural gas production. Rising natural gas production and lower natural gas consumption for power generation than in the past two summers will contribute to storage injections outpacing the five-year average in 2021.