Via a piece from NAB, this in brief:
- The AUD/USD has depreciated slightly over the past month on renewed fears around the virus, with the emergence of the omicron variant.
- We have revised down our forecasts slightly in the nearterm – around US1c lower through 2022.
- Overall, we see the AUD/USD around 77c by end 2022, before appreciating to a peak of US78c by Q4 2023, and then paring back slightly over 2024.
- Importantly, the exchange rate in both USD and trade-weighted terms remains below the level at the time of the QE announcement adding support to the decision to end the program as we expect in February
