AUD/EUR has been lively over the past month, sliding from the high 0.62s to below 0.6100 mid-August, rebounding to just short of 0.6300 early September and now consolidating around 0.62. Short-term, AUD/EUR probably drifts towards 0.6150. But over Q4, we could see the pair close to 0.6300, economists at Westpac report.
10-year AU-EU yield spread has offered useful guidance for AUD/EUR this year
“Last week the ECB’s keenly awaited policy meeting delivered something for everyone. The hawks wanted the pace of bond purchases under the pandemic program to be slowed and this was confirmed. But President Lagarde declared that, ‘the lady isn’t tapering,’ rather ‘recalibrating’ given that the pace was scaled up in March.”
“The RBA delivered a mixed move on QE last week, tapering near-term but extending its next review of the pace by 3 months to Feb 2022. Neither CB is in the slightest hurry to lift their benchmark rate, leaving 2 year spreads drifting. But the 10 year yield spread has been a more helpful guide for AUD/EUR this year.”
“Short-term, AUD/EUR probably drifts down towards 0.6150. But over Q4, Australia should catch up to Europe on vaccination rates, producing periods of trade close to 0.6300.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0700 after US data
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the American session on Wednesday. The data from the US showed a strong increase in Durable Goods Orders, supporting the USD and making it difficult for the pair to gain traction.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold stays in consolidation above $2,300
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.