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- Production of 561kb/d missed consensus of 594kb/d by a wide margin, and drove full-year results of 572kb/d to miss full-year guidance of 590-600kb/d.
- Repsol flagged refining margins up 15% sequentially, $4.4/b versus $3.8/b in the prior quarter, but behind OMV's 40% sequential increase; both Shell and Exxon commentary cited marginal improvement in refining margins sequentially.
- Total's (NYSE:TTE) Europe-heavy refining system should perform better this quarter, if OMV and Repsol results are any indication; though Repsol's weak upstream performance in Europe and Africa points to Libyan outages creating a headwind for Total this quarter.
- Production was down in every major basin QoQ, with the exception of LatAm, where strong results at Repsol are likely to show through in Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) results, given asset overlap in Brazil.
- Heading into Q4 results, European refiners and majors with European refining assets are positioned well; however, Canadian upstream names appear to be best positioned into the quarter.