Notwithstanding supply constraints, an analyst at Morgan Stanley is positive about Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) December quarter performance.

The Apple Analyst

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty has an Overweight rating and a $200 price target for Apple shares.

The Apple Thesis

Cupertino is likely to post upside to Street forecasts for the December quarter and guide to a relatively in-line March quarter, thanks to improving iPhone production into year-end and modest Services outperformance, Huberty said in a note. Since hitting a low on Oct. 4, Apple's shares are up 19%, suggesting the December quarter upside is largely priced in, she added.

The analyst models December quarter revenues of $122.3 billion, a 41.9% gross margin, and $1.97 per share in earnings. Apple's management will likely shed light on its active device and iPhone installed base, the analyst said.

Among products, Apple may have shipped 83 million units of iPhones, 7.6 million units of Macs and 14.9 million units of iPads, Huberty said. The analyst estimates total product revenues of $103.1 billion, which is above the consensus estimate of $100.3 billion.

Services revenue is likely to come in at $19.2 billion, also above the consensus estimate of $18.6 billion, Huberty said. The upside is due to stronger-than-expected App Store performance and Apple's Licensing & Other segment, she added.

Given the sustained presence of COVID-19, management is unlikely to offer a revenue guidance range for the March quarter and instead will likely provide commentary on segment growth trends, she noted.

Apple shares have underperformed thus far in January after December's outperformance, the analyst said. Apple is expected to release the iPhone SE3 in April/May this year, the iPhone 14 in Fall 2022 and a mixed reality headset in 2023, Huberty noted.

Morgan Stanley said it would be a buyer on any weakness post-earnings, as it views Apple as a more "defensive/quality outperformer" in challenging markets. The company's 1.65 billion+ installed base with high loyalty/retention rates, underweight institutional positioning, along with strong capital returns and the tendency for it to outperform ahead of product cycles make the firm positive on Apple stock, Morgan Stanley noted.

AAPL Price Action

Apple shares were down 2.10% to $162.41 at market close on Friday, Jan. 21.