Gold Stays Firm As Geopolitical Risks Counter Fed Meeting Expectations

Gold prices barely moved on Wednesday but remained near the 10-week peak hit in the previous session. The bullion was supported by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, which dented risk appetite. 

gold cross on black surface

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Investors also held back making big bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike decision.

Spot gold is currently trading at $1,846.48 per ounce as of 0730 GMT.

The central bank’s two-day meeting will end today. Fed officials are expected to announce their interest rate plans for this year. But Fed funds have already fully priced in a quarter-point rate hike in March and three more rate increases for the rest of the year. Gold benefits from high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, but it is very sensitive to interest rate hikes.

Ilya Spivak, a DailyFX currency strategist, commented that gold would remain supported as long as the U.S. central bank does not make any surprise announcement.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would consider personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Ukraine. Biden stressed that a move across Ukraine’s border would mean “enormous consequences worldwide” and could amount to “the largest invasion since World War Two.” Western leaders have stepped up their preparations for a Russian invasion. They have also taken contingency measures to shield Europe from a possible energy shortage.

On the technical front, Reuters technical analyst predicted spot gold to move up to the $1,860-$1,872 range. The bullion recently breached the key resistance at $1,850 per ounce.

DailyFX senior strategist Christopher Vecchio added that new monthly and yearly highs confirm bullish prospects in the near term. He noted the positive slope of the EMA envelope, the advance of weekly Slow Stochastics above their median line and the rise of the MACD through its signal line. But he noted that nothing changes from a longer-term perspective. The bullish momentum in recent weeks will push gold prices higher before fundamental headwinds curtail the rally.

In a related development, the holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund in the world, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), rose by around 0.5% to 1,013.10 tons yesterday. Moody’s Investors Services cut Kyrgyzstan’s credit rating from B2 to B3 after it nationalized the Kumtor gold mine. The rating agency said the move indicated weak governance and investment climate deterioration.

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