The AUDUSD made a late push higher toward the close of the day yesterday, and in the process moved above the 50% retracement of the 2022 trading range at 0.71405 - but only by a few pips. The price also moved away from the 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 0.71245) after trading above and below in the Asian and early NY session (but momentum faded fairly quickly).
Although the break above the 50% was only by a few pips, it was good enough for the buyers who - after a few hours in the Asian session - pushed the pair higher toward the next target at the high from last week at 0.71679 (see post from late yesterday HERE). A corrective move ensued, but the midpoint level held (the low reached 0.71446), and the price was off to the upside again.
The high today ended up surpassing the 61.8% target at 0.7181 reaching a high of 0.7194. The price has been trading above and below the 61.8% over the last 8 trading hours.
What now?
The pair is up for 3 consecutive days. Like the 50% yesterday, it would be the best case scenario if the buying can hold near 61.8% and take the next steps to the upside. I see the 0.72048 to 0.72138 as a target, followed by the 100 day MA at 0.72478.
On a dip, close support will come in near the high from last week and high from earlier today at 0.71679. Stay above, keeps the buyers in firm control and the trend move going.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart below, note the corrective move of the high from last week at 0.7167 area, stalled near the rising 200 bar MA and the 38.2% of the trend move higher.
The next leg higher off the .7146 level moved above the 100 bar MA, stayed above it and launched higher.
The last few hours has seen the price consolidate and in process, trade above and below the 100 bar MA (blue line at 0.71819 - and moving higher). However, the price remains well above the 38.2% that 50% retracement area between 0.7175 at 0.7169, and also while above the rising 200 bar moving average at 0.7172 currently.
If the trend is to continue, staying above those levels (the 50% is also near the 0.7167 level from the hourly chart), would keep the buyers still in play and in control. Move below and all bets are off. I would expect more downside probing on the failure to stay above last week's high and the other aforementioned technical levels.
There are some pairs that can't get out of the way this week, and continue to trade in a narrow range (EURUSD , USDCHF are two examples).
The AUDUSD on the otherhand, is not one of those pairs this week. As a result, traders are "making hay" in that pair this week, and will continue to do so as long as the market allows it.
Falling below the 0.7167 would be needed to stop the hay making in this pair.
