The GBPUSD fell yesterday and in the process tested its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above).
In the Asian session today, the price moved below that moving average line, and then retested the line on two separate other occasions (one in the Asian session and another during the early European session). Sellers leaned and the price has moved lower over the last five or so hours of trading.
The price iss currently back below its 200 hour moving average 1.35729 and also below the 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 1.35526. The low price just reached 1.35375 as I type which is just above lows from last Wednesday at 1.3537. A move below that level would tilt the bias more to the downside. The next major target would be near the 38.2% of the 2022 range and the 100 day MA. Those levels are just above the 1.3500 level (1.35028 to 1.35066). Below that area, and swing lows between 1.34858 and 1.34936 would be targeted.
Overall, since February 1, the GBPUSD has been trading in a relatively narrow range between 1.34858 and 1.36428 (157 pips over 15 trading days/3 weeks). That compares to an 82 PIP average trading range per day over the last 22 trading days.
The up and down nature of the market is reflective of the changes in central bank policy but also the geopolitical risk (Russia/Ukraine). Traders are unsure of the next major shove and as a result, keeping the price action confined in the up and down trading ragne.
